SAGE ADVICE TO THE DEMOCRATS

Reconnecting With the Forgotten Majority: The Democrats’ Path Forward

The Democrats' struggle to connect with noncollege voters underscores a growing divide in American politics. Education has become the defining fault line, splitting cultural and political allegiances and dictating economic power. This gap, which emerged gradually over decades, now presents both a challenge and an opportunity for the Democratic Party to redefine its priorities and reconnect with a significant segment of the electorate.

Understanding the Divide

Over the years, Americans with college and graduate degrees have shifted overwhelmingly toward the Democratic Party, while those without such degrees have trended Republican. This divide reflects broader economic and cultural disparities. Educated Americans earn more and spend more—especially in areas like education, charity, and reading—giving them outsized influence over cultural and political institutions. By contrast, less-educated Americans, often excluded from these spheres of influence, have turned to political force as their primary means of asserting themselves.

This reliance on political power explains the populist appeal of candidates like Donald Trump. For many noncollege voters, tearing down elite institutions that seem unresponsive or dismissive of their values has become the only viable path to reclaim influence.

The Populist Appeal

Research highlights that support for populist economic policies—such as job guarantees, higher minimum wages, and strong unions—has remained steady among less-educated Americans. These policies resonate with voters who feel left behind by globalization and economic inequality. Yet, the Democratic Party's shift from New Deal-style populism to redistributive economic policies—where government allocates resources through taxes and benefits—has alienated many of these voters.

Before the Trump era, this shift had already driven a wedge between Democrats and hardworking, higher-earning noncollege Americans who believed in earning their way into the middle class. The focus on culture-war issues, exacerbated by the party’s increasing reliance on high-donation, high-education voters, only deepened this divide.

Examples of Democratic Populist Winners

Democrats have a rich history of winning elections by championing populist ideals that resonate with working Americans:

1. Franklin D. Roosevelt (FDR)
   FDR's New Deal coalition, built during the Great Depression, is a hallmark of Democratic populism. His policies focused on job creation, social security, and labor protections, bringing together farmers, urban workers, and the unemployed under a shared vision of economic recovery and fairness.
2. Harry S. Truman
   Truman's "Fair Deal" expanded upon FDR's New Deal, emphasizing civil rights, healthcare, and housing for all Americans. His no-nonsense, plain-spoken style appealed to working-class voters across the country.
3. Lyndon B. Johnson (LBJ)
   While controversial for his Vietnam War policies, LBJ's Great Society programs—including Medicare, Medicaid, and the War on Poverty—embodied populist ideals that improved the lives of millions of Americans, particularly those in disadvantaged communities.
4. Barack Obama
   Although often associated with educated elites, Obama's 2008 campaign energized a broad coalition of working-class voters with his promises of healthcare reform, economic recovery, and hope for all Americans following the Great Recession.

Populist Candidates for the Future

The Democratic Party's future depends on finding leaders who embody economic fairness and cultural inclusion while connecting with working-class voters. Potential candidates or archetypes for this movement include:

1. Senator Sherrod Brown (Ohio)
   Brown is a steadfast champion of labor rights and fair trade policies, known for his ability to connect with both rural and urban voters in a key swing state. His track record of advocating for working families makes him a natural choice for a populist platform.
2. Governor Andy Beshear (Kentucky)
   Beshear’s recent victory in a deep-red state highlights his ability to focus on kitchen-table issues like healthcare and education while avoiding polarizing culture wars. His success demonstrates how a unifying, populist message can resonate across party lines.
3. Senator John Fetterman (Pennsylvania)
   Fetterman’s blue-collar background and unapologetically progressive economic policies have helped him win over noncollege voters in a battleground state. His authentic demeanor and focus on worker issues make him a natural fit for a populist Democratic platform.
4. Stacey Abrams (Georgia)
   While Abrams is often associated with voter rights, her focus on economic justice and healthcare access positions her as a potential populist leader. Her ability to mobilize grassroots support could help redefine the Democratic base.
5. Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (New York)
   Although divisive, AOC’s advocacy for progressive economic policies such as Medicare for All and the Green New Deal resonates with younger and working-class voters who feel disenfranchised by the current system.

The Path to Reconnection

To bridge the divide, Democrats must return to their populist roots and prioritize policies that directly benefit workers. Candidates who champion job creation, labor rights, and equitable trade policies can appeal to voters who feel neglected by the current economic order. Moreover, Democrats must address the cultural alienation felt by many noncollege voters. This requires genuine listening to their concerns, recognizing their contributions, and rebuilding trust in the party's commitment to their well-being.

A Winning Strategy

The educational and cultural divide in American politics is not insurmountable. By focusing on inclusive economic policies and fielding candidates who understand the struggles of everyday Americans, the Democratic Party can expand its appeal without sacrificing its core values. Reconnecting with the noncollege majority is not just a political imperative but a moral one, reflecting the party's foundational commitment to equality and opportunity for all.

A return to populism—centered on fairness, dignity, and shared prosperity—could be the key to revitalizing the party and restoring faith in the democratic process. By looking at both historical successes and emerging leaders, Democrats have a clear path to bridging the educational divide and rebuilding a coalition that genuinely represents all Americans.

William James Spriggs