The Summit of Self-Interest: Why Putin Will Win and Trump
Will Lose
When Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin meet, it’s not a summit
of diplomacy. It’s a summit of survival. Both men are narcissists obsessed with
holding onto power, and both see the meeting as a way to bolster their
standing. But their situations, and their stakes, are very different.
Trump, deeply unpopular and underwater in approval ratings,
is desperate for something he can package as a “win.” He needs a headline that
suggests he is delivering on his promises. Yet the truth is, his political
capital is already spent. He has little leverage, no coherent strategy, and
nothing to offer but flattery. Even if he walked away with a vague agreement,
his unpopularity at home means it would do little to reverse his decline.
Putin’s position is far more precarious. His grip on power
depends on “winning” his war, and winning is defined only by the story he can
sell. For Putin, victory can mean holding territory, maintaining influence, or
simply emerging from talks without making meaningful concessions. Whatever the
metric, he must project strength. And this summit offers him the perfect stage
to do exactly that.
When Trump naively proposed the meeting, it became a gift to
Putin. He didn’t need to ask for it or concede anything to get it. Trump handed
him the optics of legitimacy, a seat at the table as an equal to the President
of the United States. Now, all Putin has to do is manipulate the proceedings to
produce an outcome he can spin as triumph, whether real or not.
Trump, the self-proclaimed master negotiator, has already
played into Putin’s hands by failing to set terms that would strengthen
America’s bargaining position. There’s no coordinated NATO front, no increase
in sanctions, and no precondition for Putin to show genuine willingness to
compromise. In other words, Trump has walked into the room and given away the
biggest prize: the meeting itself.
When the dust settles, Putin will declare victory in
whatever way suits him. Trump will return home to the exact dismal approval
numbers, giving his adversary a win without securing anything in return. The
so-called summit will stand as another example of Trump’s inability to
negotiate from strength, and another step in America’s diminished global
standing.
In this theater of ego, the only true winner will be
Vladimir Putin. And that, perhaps, was the plan all along.
William James Spriggs
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